Can Europe meet its lithium needs by 2036?

The transition to electric vehicles and battery energy storage is causing lithium demand in Europe to soar. Today, the continent relies almost entirely on imports for this resource, while producing almost nothing locally. Yet, deposits have been identified in several countries, and around twenty mining projects could come online by the early 2030s. Together, they could supply up to 395,000 tonnes of lithium per year, far exceeding Europe’s 10% self-sufficiency target for 2030.

Electric cars account for the largest share of demand, followed by vans, trucks, buses, and stationary storage systems. Batteries for 100% electric vehicles consume more lithium than those for plug-in hybrids, whose sales are expected to decline over time. Other uses, such as batteries for portable electronics or industrial applications, also account for nearly half of total demand—an aspect often underestimated in previous analyses.

Europe is also banking on recycling to reduce its dependence. However, findings show that recycling used batteries will only modestly contribute to self-sufficiency before 2036. Even with perfect collection and recovery rates, achieving the targets of 6% recycled lithium in new batteries by 2031 and 12% by 2036 will be challenging. Battery lifespan plays a key role: if it reaches 15 or 18 years, as suggested by recent data, recycled lithium will not be available soon enough to meet demand.

At the same time, European investments in overseas mining projects—particularly in South America, Africa, and Oceania—could provide a significant supplement. These projects, controlled by European companies, represent a production capacity greater than that of local deposits. Including them in calculations significantly improves Europe’s supply outlook.

Without these external contributions, Europe’s self-sufficiency would range between 31% and 78% by 2036, depending on demand and supply scenarios. By 2030, it could reach between 43% and 68%, thanks to the rapid commissioning of mining projects. However, if delays accumulate, especially for projects awaiting permits, this rate could drop to just 4% to 7% by 2030. Delays in obtaining permits and financing thus remain a major risk.

Substituting lithium with other technologies, such as sodium batteries, could also limit demand growth. While these alternatives are less efficient, they do not require lithium and are beginning to emerge in the market. However, their widespread adoption will take time, and lithium will remain dominant in the coming years.

Finally, mining in Europe could also allow the recovery of valuable by-products, such as boron, tantalum, or magnesium—materials also classified as critical. This would provide an additional advantage in securing the supply of strategic raw materials.

Our References

Reference Work

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44296-026-00114-x

Title: Securing European lithium: assessing future demand, primary supply, trade and the role of recycling

Journal: npj Materials Sustainability

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Authors: André Månberger; Oscar Gustafsson; Björn Nykvist